Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 1.392374 1.447895 1.505234 1.569046 1.638283 1.711368 1.794655
2026-01-04 1.338889 1.414620 1.495323 1.588253 1.692990 1.808210 1.945725
2026-01-11 1.284914 1.373145 1.469333 1.582950 1.714797 1.864687 2.050549
2026-01-18 1.245071 1.343217 1.452277 1.583941 1.740711 1.924307 2.160257
2026-01-25 1.194842 1.298031 1.414332 1.557070 1.730422 1.938256 2.213227
2026-02-01 1.160934 1.269512 1.393545 1.548215 1.739746 1.974837 2.295317
2026-02-08 1.129810 1.242518 1.372788 1.537530 1.745122 2.005464 2.370471
2026-02-15 1.101264 1.217181 1.352553 1.525908 1.747834 2.031732 2.440475
2026-02-22 1.082977 1.203175 1.345070 1.529198 1.768934 2.082319 2.547095
2026-03-01 1.051288 1.171787 1.315011 1.502445 1.749171 2.076316 2.571268
2026-03-08 1.026125 1.147521 1.292818 1.484619 1.739968 2.083624 2.614719
2026-03-15 1.005887 1.128639 1.276595 1.473639 1.739045 2.101829 2.675295
2026-03-22 0.996727 1.123587 1.278014 1.486271 1.771521 2.170385 2.822584
2026-03-29 0.991250 1.122811 1.284611 1.505711 1.814017 2.255912 3.006458
2026-04-05 0.976252 1.109536 1.274639 1.502362 1.823993 2.293369 3.113636
2026-04-12 0.964348 1.099793 1.268819 1.504226 1.841217 2.342579 3.246565
2026-04-19 0.942473 1.076768 1.245008 1.480510 1.820046 2.330426 3.266515
2026-04-26 0.928228 1.063188 1.233189 1.472892 1.822044 2.354818 3.357032
2026-05-03 0.913948 1.049213 1.220440 1.463461 1.820768 2.373590 3.438609
2026-05-10 0.899944 1.035276 1.207361 1.453074 1.817476 2.388626 3.514279
2026-05-17 0.891861 1.028812 1.204005 1.456192 1.834606 2.438377 3.667036
2026-05-24 0.873636 1.008737 1.181920 1.431907 1.808545 2.413233 3.657855
2026-05-31 0.859115 0.993280 1.165757 1.415704 1.794443 2.407906 3.691449